Monday, November 2, 2015

Cisco predicts rapid growth of cloud traffic

Cisco has published the fifth annual report of the Cisco Global Cloud Index (2014-2019) entitled "The Global Index of cloud technology in the period from 2014 to 2019.". In it the company demonstrated modern cloud volumes of traffic as well as traffic data centers, which currently account for 2.1 and 3.4, respectively, ST. The Cisco made the forecast growth in global traffic in both directions, and said that by the end of 2019 the volume of cloud traffic will grow fourfold and reach 8.6 ST, surpassing the growth rate traffic data centers, which in the same period would be three times more than in the current situation and will make 10.4 ST. Such a jump in the first place promotes the growth of active mobile devices increase in popularity of cloud services and virtualization, private clouds, the density of the tasks which are constantly growing. Also, the growth of traffic is influenced by inter-machine (machine-to-machine, M2M) connections.
"Global Development Index cloud" demonstrates that the cloud from the regional trend is becoming a global mass resolution, and in the next five years, cloud traffic will grow annually in all regions more than 30% - said the vice president of Cisco's marketing solutions service providers Doug Webster. - Commercial and government agencies move from test cloud to accommodate them as their critical tasks. At the same time consumers expect ubiquitous access on request to the services and content. All this creates a lot of opportunities for cloud operators who will play an increasingly important role in the ecosystem of the communications industry. "
According to forecasts of Cisco, a significant impact on the growth of traffic and traffic of the cloud data center will provide comprehensive and internet, t. E. Connect people, processes, data and objects. By 2019, annual traffic generated by different applications IoE-reach 507.5 ST (ST 42.3 per month). It is 49 times higher than the forecast for 2019 traffic data center (10.4 ST). Today, only a small part of the content stored in the data center, but that could change with the growth of the application requirements and the development of big data analytics (referring to the analysis of historical data to make tactical and strategic decisions).
Today 73% of the data stored on client devices, placed on the PC. By 2019, 51% of the data will be stored on other devices - smartphones, tablets, M2M-modules, and so on. D. According to forecasts of Cisco, with increasing volumes of stored data will grow and loading custom cloud storage. By 2019, 55% of Internet users in the residential sector will have a personal cloud storage (in 2014 the figure was 42%). So, according to forecasts, by 2017 global smartphone traffic (201 EB year) exceeds the amount of data stored on them (EB 179 per year), which will lead to the need to increase the opportunities for data storage in the cloud.

As already mentioned, by the end of 2019 the annual global IP-data center traffic will grow to 10.4 ST (in 2014 this figure was 3.4 ST).
According to forecasts, the annual global cloud traffic will grow over the above-mentioned period quadrupled, from 2.1 ST (176 EB per month) in 2014 to 8.6 ST (EB 719 per month by the end of 2019). Moreover, its share in the total data center traffic by 2019 will exceed 83%.
It is expected that new technologies such as SDN and NFV, change the distribution of traffic in the data center, so that the upper levels (core) volumes may fall to 10.4 ST in the year, and lower levels will transmit more than 40 ST annually.

  • cloud traffic distribution by region: by 2019 the largest volume will come from North America (3.6 ST), in second place come the Asia-Pacific region (2.3 ST), closes the top three Western Europe (1.5 ST).

    • data center traffic distribution by region: by 2019 the largest volume also will be in North America (4.5 ST), in second place come the Asia-Pacific region (2.7 ST), the third is Western Europe (1.8 ST).
    • Data for other regions can be found on the website Cisco.
    • For comparison, 10.4 ST traffic - is:
      • 144 trillion hours of streaming music - equivalent to about 26 months of continuous music streaming to each inhabitant of the Earth in 2019 provided a population of 7.6 billion people (according to the UN);
      • 26 trillion hours of web conferencing using webcams - equivalent to approximately 21 hours of daily web conferencing over the working population in 2019;
      • 6.8 trillion movies in high definition (HD), viewed online - equivalent to about 2.4 hours a day watching streaming HD-video with all the world's people in 2019;
      • 1.2 trillion hours of streaming video super resolution (UHD) - equivalent to about 1.4 hours a day watching streaming video UHD-every family in 2019 (2.2 billion families in the world by 2019).
      Cisco says that by 2019:
      • 55% or more than 2 billion individual Internet users will have recourse to the personal cloud storage (same period in 2014 - 42%, or 1.1 billion users);
      • Global cloud monthly usage per user will be 1.6 GB (in 2014 - 992 MB);
      • total loading data centers over the period more than doubled, while the number of tasks cloud over the same period will increase more than threefold;
      • the density of the problems (number of tasks on a single physical server) for cloud data centers will grow to 8.4;
      • the global volume of data generated IoE-connections to reach 507.5 ST annually (ST 42.3 per month), in 2014 the figure was 134.5 in the year ST (ST 11.2 per month);
      • "smart" city with a population of 1 million people every day will generate 180 million gigabytes of data.

      Forecasts of the "Global Development Index cloud":
      • in the period under review the number of tasks in the public cloud will grow annually by 
      • by 2019 in the public cloud 44%;data centers will run 56% cloud problems (in 2014 such problems was 30%), t. e. the annual increase for the period 2014-2019. is 44%;
      • By 2019, in a private cloud data centers will run 44% cloud problems (in 2014 the figure was 70%), t. E. The annual decrease for the period was 16%.
      The most popular model in the private service and the most common in public clouds by 2019 will be the model of "software as a service" (Software-as-a-Service, SaaS). By 2019:
      • SaaS model will be performed 59% of all cloud problems (in 2014 - 45%);
      • on the model of "infrastructure as a service" (Infrastructure-as-a-Service, IaaS) will be performed 30% of all cloud problems (in 2014 - 42%);
      • by 2019 on the model of "Platform as a Service" (Platform-as-a-Service, PaaS) will be performed 11% of all cloud problems (in 2014 - 13%).
      To assess the readiness of cloud computing on the basis of global data testing fixed and mobile networks in 150 countries, calculated the median and average delay time and the loading and unloading:
      • This year the criteria for the application of advanced mobile networks corresponded to 81 countries (last year - only 21 countries);
      • This year the criteria for the application of advanced fixed network corresponded to 119 countries (previous year: -109 countries);
      • Basic requirements for cloud applications: download speed up to 750 kbit / s, upload speed of up to 250 kbit / s, the delay time - more than 160 ms;
      • requirements for cloud applications average: download speed - 751-2 500 kbit / s, upload - 251-1 000 kbit / s, the delay time - 159-100 ms;
      • requirements for advanced cloud applications: download speed - a 2500 kbit / s, upload - more than 1000 kbit / s, the delay time - less than 100 ms.
      The degree of readiness of a country, including Russia and most other CIS countries, can be found here. Further details by region and country is published here. Illustrative infographics presented here.

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